Nate Silver made headlines when he famously out-predicted much of the field during the recent Presidential race; he accurately predicted the outcome in all fifty states. But the truth is, it wasn't the first time he made headlines with successful forecasts.
While value investors know not to rely on forecasts (as discussed many times on this site), Silver has made a career out of it. In his book, The Signal and The Noise, he discusses the challenges facing forecasters and the ways in which forecasting can be improved.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Monday, January 28, 2013
Chaos Theory by Robert Murphy really tests the limits of how open your mind is. The book forces the reader to think outside the box that is the years of conditioning that have shaped our beliefs in the necessity of organized government.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
As former market darling Apple (AAPL) has seen its stock price continue to fall, it has increasingly piqued the interest of value investors. At a market cap of $450 billion and twelve-month earnings of over $40 billion, Apple's P/E is barely over 10. Considering the company has no debt and cash equivalents of almost $140 billion, the valuation appears very compelling indeed.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Friday, January 18, 2013
As the market advances, it becomes more difficult to find value. Individual stocks are rising, offering investors opportunities to cash out. One stock bucking this trend is Sangoma (STC), a profitable net-net which has lost one third of its value since November.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
I first heard about The Sleuth Investor (a book by Avner Mandelman) through the valuable value sites csinvesting and Oddball Stocks. Two days ago, I discussed a book by a value investor who believes in the superiority of a purely quantitative approach to investing. While The Sleuth Investor is also by a value investor, it is in many ways the exact opposite; the author believes in the scuttlebutt approach to value investing, and offers some of his advanced techniques to the reader.
Monday, January 14, 2013
I haven't read it yet, but I very much look forward to reading the new book Quantitative Value By Tobias Carlisle. For those of you unfamiliar with this title, the book is written by the author of the value site Greenbackd, an extremely useful resource for value investors.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Global IT company Unisys has all the makings of a value stock. Its net cash position of $330 million provides safety in the event of a downturn and offers strong downside protection on the company's $760 million market cap. In recent years, the company has managed annual income of $200 million; it will not earn as much this year thanks to cutbacks in government spending, but the company remains solidly profitable.