tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post2480681492393446574..comments2024-03-11T10:31:06.107-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: RIM: The Analysts Were RightSaj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-23939463185704066892011-12-22T16:35:27.233-05:002011-12-22T16:35:27.233-05:00Hi Ankit,
1) I thought this was a bigger moat tha...Hi Ankit,<br /><br />1) I thought this was a bigger moat than it turned out to be.<br /><br />2) I agree the gap is being bridged here<br /><br />3) Yes, the managers appears to be aligned with shareholders. Also, the fact that RIM is in a fast-growing industry will provide some tailwinds. Hopefully they can executeSaj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-72103361587007951892011-12-20T23:53:31.502-05:002011-12-20T23:53:31.502-05:00Saj,
Few questions on the points that you discuss...Saj,<br /><br />Few questions on the points that you discussed or I saw discussed elsewhere:<br /><br />1. BBM's Network Effects - how valid is this? Doesn't this require a significant mass to matter, because I don't see it occurring in the United States. That said... could it be occurring abroad? US sales are down year over year, while internationally, they're growing 100%+<br /><br />2. Corporate/Enterprise Security - Applications like Good on the iPhone are bridging the gap and allowing corporations to use this instead of the blackberry solutions. Just how valuable is it? I did see that they have a government product line that requires an ID badge to be in proximity to use... great idea, but will it spread beyond government?<br /><br />3. If the overall revenue picture falls, isn't it more likely that RIMM's revenue will fall faster than they can adjust staff? If revenues fell 20% year over year, their ability to be profitable may be questionable. Do we just count on management to do the right thing here? The Co-CEO's have a lot of stock ownership, so maybe that's what should help us believe they will do what is right? How will we measure them if the right choice is to not decrease staff, because they are doing R&D on items that will pay off in the next year or two, but produce a bad income statement for 1 single year?<br /><br />Thanks,<br />AnkitAnkit Guptahttp://www.selectedfinancials.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-24021812516107251862011-11-10T16:13:55.898-05:002011-11-10T16:13:55.898-05:00Thanks for the reply. Much appreciated Saj.Thanks for the reply. Much appreciated Saj.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-37904964995967874152011-11-09T16:01:02.259-05:002011-11-09T16:01:02.259-05:00Not really. Plenty of hiccups with the tablet and ...Not really. Plenty of hiccups with the tablet and with the network, but hopefully the blackberry 7s are selling well. The valuation still looks compelling to me.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-44588957583846135352011-11-09T13:46:49.825-05:002011-11-09T13:46:49.825-05:00Any updates on your RIMM analysis?Any updates on your RIMM analysis?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-92222735084320365592011-09-16T19:21:13.018-04:002011-09-16T19:21:13.018-04:00Hi Anon,
I still believe the valuation is absurd,...Hi Anon,<br /><br />I still believe the valuation is absurd, yes. I did average down, but I am still down big!Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-20635150183541160002011-09-16T16:57:43.546-04:002011-09-16T16:57:43.546-04:00Has your opinion on RIM changed at all? Are you do...Has your opinion on RIM changed at all? Are you down around 50% on your investment or have you averaged down?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-4551472980580264202011-07-07T07:40:03.661-04:002011-07-07T07:40:03.661-04:00For some reason you're anchoring to the midpoi...For some reason you're anchoring to the midpoint of the new earnings estimate for the year and projecting that level 4 years into the future. How do you know what it's next year's earnings will be or the year after? If you're taking a calculated gamble, fine, but don't call it value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-5796201253536501002011-06-29T21:38:37.343-04:002011-06-29T21:38:37.343-04:00Hi, Anon1. Value investing is about price vs value...Hi, Anon1. Value investing is about price vs value. Even the best companies can trade at a price that is too high, and even poor companies can trade at attractive prices, is the way I look at it.<br /><br />Hi, Anon2. I agree there are risks with this company, but I wouldn't characterize them as inconsistent with the site's definition of value. High ROE and low PE companies are often brought up on the site. Microsoft and Cisco would be similar examples.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-41891162359651814072011-06-29T16:06:38.109-04:002011-06-29T16:06:38.109-04:00I dont understand why you think that you can ever ...I dont understand why you think that you can ever understand RIMM better than people immersed in the industry... it is not a "value investment" using the definition you repeatedly use on the site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-22277635446536238432011-06-28T09:17:57.655-04:002011-06-28T09:17:57.655-04:00Don't you think its better just to buy the bet...Don't you think its better just to buy the better businesses in the sector? buying the low multiple biz is not necessarily the best option. apple has always been more expensive than rim but always the better investment. the same for whole foods vs. supervalu. Going long companies with deteriorating fundamentals rarely works, regardless of valuation. Rim may finally be truly cheap, but most longs have lost a fortune on it already and have to climb back. Costco vs. Radioshack etc. Better businesses tend to outperform in the public markets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-16304919582498975612011-06-28T08:24:50.478-04:002011-06-28T08:24:50.478-04:00Slashdot, the nerd website, ran the headline yeste...Slashdot, the nerd website, ran the headline yesterday "Developers Defecting From BlackBerry". http://bit.ly/mAajU6 Ouch.<br /><br />RIM may exhibit value characteristics, but it operates in a fast-changing marketplace where you can never tell what's going to happen next. This could be a huge value trap, and it's probably for the best to put this one in the "too difficult" pile.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14217216051200082198noreply@blogger.com