tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post7777726833612560165..comments2024-03-11T10:31:06.107-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: Timing The MarketSaj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-28739037993155694032009-10-18T16:54:21.825-04:002009-10-18T16:54:21.825-04:00Very interesting research indeed. In my view it ju...Very interesting research indeed. In my view it just confirms my belief in value investing and in NOT trying to time the market. Sure there will be people who outperform for certain periods as market timers, but is it sustainable as you asked? I wouldn't think so. One or two missed calls and they can see all their hard efforts wiped out. Great post Saj!Jonathan Goldberghttp://www.jonathangoldberg.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-11297547147128559532009-10-14T15:38:45.866-04:002009-10-14T15:38:45.866-04:00I would suggest that for market timing, most inves...I would suggest that for market timing, most investors don't make intermediate term forecasts, but work off of the recent past.<br /><br />Considering the fact that recency bias looms large among investors, I wonder if market timing would be better shown by a simple "if year 1 is positive, then long the market for year 2, if year 1 is negative, then cash for year 2." <br /><br />It would show even worse results than the study you mentioned.Retirement Saviorhttp://www.retirementsavior.comnoreply@blogger.com