tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post1922646945567550139..comments2024-03-11T10:31:06.107-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: The Making Of A Market Guru: 2006 - 2007Saj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-28775495039467249752010-10-25T03:38:22.020-04:002010-10-25T03:38:22.020-04:00I agree with Scott. You got to include the perform...I agree with Scott. You got to include the performance. Fisher didn't exactly nail 2007 and he still beats the market? That's solid. Why don't you mention that? No one will be right 100% of the time. Expecting that is foolish. But if a guy can be wrong now and again and still get to a market-beating track record, that's a guru. Hence the name of the book I guess. And oh yeah, 2009 was freaking awesome.Justin Hensonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-13840628802341372922010-10-13T20:43:23.867-04:002010-10-13T20:43:23.867-04:00Good point, Scott. But as the book's intro say...Good point, Scott. But as the book's intro says: "The individual stock picks have been removed...". As such, I have kept my summaries to his macro predictions. To that end, perhaps I did not communicate clearly that when I said he was "off" this period, I did not mean with stock selections but rather his macro predictions for 2008.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-50884140775611498912010-10-13T04:37:44.445-04:002010-10-13T04:37:44.445-04:00Based on your reviews of the past chapters, he nai...Based on your reviews of the past chapters, he nailed the 1987 and the 1990 bear markets, the huge bull of the 1990's, the 2000 tech call, the 2001 bear call, the subsequent bull market, and missed the 08 call. I know he has been bullish over the last year and a half so he nailed that bull call. What's the problem again? Who has a record like that? By my accounting the only people who hit 2008 on the head did it just because they had been bearish forever. That's hardly something to applaud.Aurora Vaughannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-6087066539044868152010-10-13T03:51:21.708-04:002010-10-13T03:51:21.708-04:00Saj, you're just wrong on one major point. Fis...Saj, you're just wrong on one major point. Fisher wasn't "clearly off during this period and not just by a little bit." In 2007 he beat the market! You have performance in the front of the book. This is just such an important point and I can't believe you're not making it. Because as is coming up in 2008, Fisher does lag the market, but just by a bit, then he makes up for it by beating the market by 20% or more in 2008. The relative performance here is so important. That's what makes his advice worth reading.Scott Hudgens (NYC)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-37216948074294350992010-10-11T05:30:41.898-04:002010-10-11T05:30:41.898-04:00Hi guys,
Yeah constantly going against prevalent ...Hi guys,<br /><br />Yeah constantly going against prevalent sentiment can probably work more times than not, but not all the time, as Fisher tends towards. I would also draw a distinction that going against market sentiment probably works often (because of crowded trades) versus going against sentiment in predicting economic direction. I'm not as convinced about the utility of the latter.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-21539928102842171782010-10-10T13:26:06.088-04:002010-10-10T13:26:06.088-04:00Mmm, that makes me think a little more carefully a...Mmm, that makes me think a little more carefully about his current bullish thoughts!<br /><br />Thanks for sharing your reading like this. I've enjoyed this one since it gives me a quick insight into a book I have not read.<br /><br />I also enjoyed your summary of <i>Reminiscences of a Stock Operator</i>, a book I had read. It was interesting to see how people thought and traded in the early twentieth century ... more like the day traders of the late twentieth century. It really was gambling back then. Beyond that historical insight, I didn't feel Jesse Livermore's story taught me much, so it was especially helpful to read your thoughts on the book.Salserohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17538918784870619787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-43370688093267250362010-10-10T11:25:41.455-04:002010-10-10T11:25:41.455-04:00perhaps this is why buffet says that stuff about h...perhaps this is why buffet says that stuff about having a temperament that derives no special joy from going against market sentiment or with it. eh, saj?<br />really hope this guy is wrong only about the timing and right about everything else . As they say things are always obvious after the fact.<br />wot r ur thoughts?rayhaannoreply@blogger.com