tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post3604421773544376464..comments2024-03-28T13:45:43.362-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: Channel Stuffing or Poor Predicting?Saj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-42609170602802353422009-07-27T14:58:21.941-04:002009-07-27T14:58:21.941-04:00Hi Guys,
Thanks for the kind words!
PlanMaestro,...Hi Guys,<br /><br />Thanks for the kind words!<br /><br />PlanMaestro, I'd also like to see some sort of settlement on the Chinese lawsuit (though that may be wishful thinking), so that I have more confidence in my valuation.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-87121739515844235452009-07-27T13:34:35.612-04:002009-07-27T13:34:35.612-04:00Barel, it is a pleasure to follow your posts and y...Barel, it is a pleasure to follow your posts and your openness to criticism and suggestions is commendable. <br /><br />Looks like this Q is going to be critical: The Mexican economy has been hit the last 2Qs. At the same time it looks like they are streaming the channel inventory. If there is a substantial fall in international sales it could be the time to buck up the truck.PlanMaestronoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-4431567514396531612009-06-05T21:39:44.124-04:002009-06-05T21:39:44.124-04:00Excellent analysis.
I would want to distinguish...Excellent analysis. <br /><br />I would want to distinguish intentional channel stuffing with the aim to mislead from what looks to be the case here--namely, mistaken projections by international customers.<br /><br />So in a strict sense, their international supply channels appear 'stuffed', and international sales will likely be lower in the future. If you have sufficient margin of safety, I wouldn't think this change would irreparably harm the investment thesis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com