tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post5506614371825168700..comments2024-03-28T13:45:43.362-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: Buffett's Stock Market IndicatorSaj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-24389927032910805162009-06-18T16:00:43.602-04:002009-06-18T16:00:43.602-04:00I was surprised to read Buffett say that buying st...I was surprised to read Buffett say that buying stocks at 70%-80% of GDP would work well considering the long-term average is more like 60% and tends to dip to 40% or less in severe recessions.FMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-41195474859015050582009-05-29T11:50:25.618-04:002009-05-29T11:50:25.618-04:00Mathias: there are also more foreign companies sel...Mathias: there are also more foreign companies selling goods in the US, either through importing them or by producing them in the US. Those companies' MV is counted in their home country, not in the US, although I wonder if the value of ADR's is included in the value of the US "stockmarket". Overall, and as a back of the envelope measure, all these factors probably cancel out against one another, leaving the gross measure of "Stock Market Value vs. GNP" pretty acurate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-74299442766383665632009-02-07T14:06:00.000-05:002009-02-07T14:06:00.000-05:00The ratio still looks high if you consider that in...The ratio still looks high if you consider that interest rates are at all time lows and corporate profitability was recently at an all time high.<BR/><BR/>Were these two metrics to return to historical averages, stocks should get much cheaper relative to GNP.<BR/><BR/>Is it time to buy? Maybe, but not because stocks are necessarily 'cheap'.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-58599582183737301042009-02-05T17:33:00.000-05:002009-02-05T17:33:00.000-05:00Hi Matias,This would be more of a concern if using...Hi Matias,<BR/><BR/>This would be more of a concern if using GDP (goods produced within the US), but in this case by using GNP (which includes foreign income) we are taking that into account for the most part.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-53714844236405210952009-02-05T13:46:00.000-05:002009-02-05T13:46:00.000-05:00What is your take on the argument, that american f...What is your take on the argument, that american firms (KO, PEP, MMM, MSFT..) have a much higher proportion of international sales that could justify a hiegher ratio?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02806457530727624618noreply@blogger.com