tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post7495710205938947079..comments2024-03-28T13:45:43.362-04:00Comments on <center><a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com">Barel Karsan - Value Investing</a></center>: Research In MotionSaj Karsanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-20068450046514681822014-01-31T13:54:34.525-05:002014-01-31T13:54:34.525-05:00Here's the link:
http://seekingalpha.com/arti...Here's the link:<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/1984531-blackberry-positive-catalysts-for-2014Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-21481862461284844002014-01-31T13:53:08.027-05:002014-01-31T13:53:08.027-05:00Saj- thought you might like this, if you haven'...Saj- thought you might like this, if you haven't seen it already. Cheers, BFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-413737174542163752013-11-28T19:14:15.582-05:002013-11-28T19:14:15.582-05:00Hi BF,
I think you may have a point. At the same ...Hi BF,<br /><br />I think you may have a point. At the same time, some of what were originally identified as RIM's strengths (good B/S, security, enterprise) may be the reason BBRY still lives to take another shot. Without those factors, I may never have purchased it! I definitely do feel this was a fail, however, as per articles on RIM I have since written; so don't worry, I won't be calling it an unqualified success should the share price rise, as I bought in much higher. Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-10288726829611406922013-11-28T12:43:52.837-05:002013-11-28T12:43:52.837-05:00Saj,
I think "Research in Motion" is l...Saj, <br /><br />I think "Research in Motion" is long overdue for your "value fail page", while "Blackberry" may deserve a fresh value thesis. It's not just semantics. <br /><br />Here are some reasons why: <br />(1) third round of CEO, much of the senior team replaced, <br />(2) failed buyout search, <br />(3) a difficult to understand product strategy up to this point, and<br />(4) a completely reconfigured product landscape, with BBM for iOS, and enterprise software and services facilitating the deployment of iOS and other devices in the enterprise environment.<br /><br />In isolation, these are not changes that rise to the level of a structural change, but at some point a line needs to be drawn as to what constitutes a failed value thesis. Holding on longer in the hope of a recovery --- even if it happens under the new CEO, an entirely new management team, and a fresh company strategy --- would not necessarily justify classification as a successful value investment. <br /><br />A successful exit on Blackberry as an investment in 2014 or 2015 would not be “value in action” --- at least not based on the originally stated thesis and underlying assumptions conceived in 2011 or even 2012 by many value investors (including myself). Rather, much of the substance of those theses have been substantially invalidated, particularly the valuation.<br /><br />I would enjoy seeing Blackberry recover to its former glory. I love the Blackberry keyboard for email in a professional environment. The new CEO is promising and a clear and laser focus on enterprise seems likely to occur under his leadership. The share price is moving towards attractive, although I suspect the next earnings report will reveal a dramatic decline due to alienation of the enterprise segment during the "for sale process" and BB10's apparent neglect for the cost of deploying an entirely new device (including technical support and employee retraining). In my view, these factors may contribute to a significant decline in earnings, leading to further decline in the share price (although Mr. Market is often erratic, so it's difficult to predict what the share price will do) and an attractive valuation for brave value investors. However, as indicated above, holding on to- or buying into- Blackberry at the present juncture would be substantially rooted in a new value thesis. <br /><br />Hope my thoughts spark some ideas and debate. I would enjoy reading your thoughts on the above and... perhaps after the next quarterly report... a fresh value thesis on Blackberry. <br /><br />As always, <br />Big Fan<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-56686641121966886642011-11-29T23:58:11.170-05:002011-11-29T23:58:11.170-05:00Hi gsakk,
Plenty. Most are summarized hereHi gsakk,<br /><br />Plenty. Most are summarized <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2011/06/rim-analysts-were-right.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-89030559676263135882011-11-28T23:37:01.272-05:002011-11-28T23:37:01.272-05:00Saj, any new thoughts on RIM?Saj, any new thoughts on RIM?gsakkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14766390645118978190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-37441199140262093332011-11-28T23:36:05.007-05:002011-11-28T23:36:05.007-05:00Saj, any thoughts on RIM?Saj, any thoughts on RIM?gsakkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14766390645118978190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-50505115807267168802011-06-27T13:23:41.566-04:002011-06-27T13:23:41.566-04:00Hi Anon,
I'll summarize my latest thoughts on...Hi Anon,<br /><br />I'll summarize my latest thoughts on RIM in a post within the next 1 or 2 days.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-89283694227226394932011-06-21T18:15:44.449-04:002011-06-21T18:15:44.449-04:00Saj,
Are you still holding on to RIMM. Or taking ...Saj,<br /><br />Are you still holding on to RIMM. Or taking losses and moving on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-19969195442223016182011-06-20T10:30:13.317-04:002011-06-20T10:30:13.317-04:00Awesome. Looking forward to it!Awesome. Looking forward to it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-14671519754706851272011-06-19T22:21:09.195-04:002011-06-19T22:21:09.195-04:00hi anon1,
yeah i'll write my thoughts on this...hi anon1,<br /><br />yeah i'll write my thoughts on this in a post in around a week or soSaj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-80032845169649659612011-06-17T16:56:25.721-04:002011-06-17T16:56:25.721-04:00No, there is no margin of safety apart from tangib...No, there is no margin of safety apart from tangible book value and its slipping brand value. That's why it was shocking that Watsa would take such a gamble. This is such a fast-moving industry that previously demonstrated earning power counts for very little. There is a substantial earnings decline reflected in today's price and so expectations are low but it all comes down to competing forecasts and that's not value investing. Another thing to note is that RIM has rather high capex compared to peers that overstates real owner's earnings. So overall you may think probabilities are in your favor at this price but it remains a highly speculative stock.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-80540861205850765662011-06-17T12:19:36.240-04:002011-06-17T12:19:36.240-04:00Here is a link to a very good paper written from T...Here is a link to a very good paper written from Tweedy, Browne. This is required reading at the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing at Columbia business school. <br /><br />http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedInInvesting.pdf<br /><br />Basically, shows that though PE ratio is important, what's more important is the price-to-book. I think all investors should consider both (as well as other financial and non-financial factors) when making a purchase.<br /><br />The PE of RIMM is even "better" now, but the PB is still around 2. Granted this is a tech company so you would expect this, but is there a margin of safety here? I'm not sure even at today's price of $27.50. Maybe at a PB of 1.5?<br /><br />Best,<br />JustinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-13747077024101294272011-06-14T10:09:16.150-04:002011-06-14T10:09:16.150-04:00Saj,
Any updates on your RIM analysis? Your insig...Saj,<br /><br />Any updates on your RIM analysis? Your insights would be much appreciated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-1060867827107219972011-05-24T20:10:13.855-04:002011-05-24T20:10:13.855-04:00Hi Anon,
I think the company faces some competiti...Hi Anon,<br /><br />I think the company faces some competitive challenges, however, I still think it is far too cheap. That said, this is the tech industry so things can change very quickly (either for the better or for the worse).Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-36850001258312103612011-05-23T17:38:40.144-04:002011-05-23T17:38:40.144-04:00Got to your site from Canadian business online. I ...Got to your site from Canadian business online. I was wondering what you think of RIMM today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-23595186610393052812011-05-02T15:18:08.833-04:002011-05-02T15:18:08.833-04:00I would agree with that assessment, Philbert. The ...I would agree with that assessment, Philbert. The execution has been weak.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-30094629480925730602011-04-29T10:46:13.697-04:002011-04-29T10:46:13.697-04:00I own RIM and think they make good products and ar...I own RIM and think they make good products and are greatly underappreciated in the market. Plus, I'm so sick of hearing about Apple. However, it seems that RIM managment has not executed very well in the last 6 months. Their execution on the Playbook was terrible. They were talking about it in the fall and only released it recently. And then when it was released it was missing many essential features. I like the stock, I like the product, but the management is underwhelming me.Philberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10454156659046037606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-62112834487633391152010-11-13T09:55:15.046-05:002010-11-13T09:55:15.046-05:00saj,
looks like you're in some great company!...saj,<br /><br />looks like you're in some great company!<br /><br />Fairfax also bought some RIMM.<br /><br />http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000095012310104863/o66554ae13fvhr.txtPaulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-87077948819030176732010-08-18T20:33:58.059-04:002010-08-18T20:33:58.059-04:00Hi ak,
If you have been following this site for a...Hi ak,<br /><br />If you have been following this site for a while, you know that I don't buy/sell shares based on 3-day guesstimates of new product sales.<br /><br />As such, the article above still describes my viewpoint of this stock. Summarizing: low P/E, returns cash to shareholders, generates high ROE, and is a significant player in a growing industrySaj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-78822792021146858732010-08-17T13:32:34.334-04:002010-08-17T13:32:34.334-04:00What is your take on the failure of their new phon...What is your take on the failure of their new phone? Unlike simple nuts and bolts companies, this could mean a big deal. Not like cellphone companies can release a new phone model every month til they find a successful one. This may affect RIMMS long term profits. Maybe take another year or two to release a new model. Also not to mention the RD money they will have to sink in to create a new model.akhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13092464020591017021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-32420309650958041802010-07-30T16:45:35.969-04:002010-07-30T16:45:35.969-04:00Thank you for clarifying Saj.Thank you for clarifying Saj.akhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13092464020591017021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-61851905806505120672010-07-29T21:17:22.940-04:002010-07-29T21:17:22.940-04:00Hi AK,
From my understanding, they are booking th...Hi AK,<br /><br />From my understanding, they are booking the revenue once the customer has the Blackberry (as Apple now does it). Regarding software charges though, they amortize these.Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-14700003975326871822010-07-28T13:56:32.230-04:002010-07-28T13:56:32.230-04:00Hey Saj, i was looking at RIMM revenue recognition...Hey Saj, i was looking at RIMM revenue recognition on their phones and it says they are recognized when the contract is fully awarded. So does this mean they are following the old format where they spread their revenue over the lifetime of the cellphone contract? Or they following Apples new bs accounting trick and recognizing full revenue after the sell.<br /><br />So I guess to simplify it, are they amortizing the revenues or just booking it full one time.akhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13092464020591017021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294165939647321702.post-12697926507678198322010-07-27T20:49:43.134-04:002010-07-27T20:49:43.134-04:00Hi Maxi,
I'm not sure I understand the link b...Hi Maxi,<br /><br />I'm not sure I understand the link between earnings manipulation and volatile stock prices. What connection are you drawing there?Saj Karsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04493152766022812984noreply@blogger.com