Thursday, January 19, 2017

Algorithms to Live By

You peer through the windshield as you approach your destination. It's not far now, maybe 1 more block? Now that you're so close, do you take the first parking spot you see, or do you take the chance that maybe there'll be an open one right in front of your favourite restaurant?

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

The House of Morgan

Picture yourself as the owner of a promising business in early 20th century America. How do you finance your expansion? There are no capital markets you can tap. Your business, like pretty much every business, is too small to develop its own financing capabilities. (The transportation and communication networks we take for granted today didn't exist, making businesses much more local in nature than they are today.) Most of the money available for this sort of thing comes from Europe anyway. Who is your master in such an environment? Your banker!

Monday, January 9, 2017

Glacier's Stock Price is Ice Cold

Glacier Media (GVC) is a Canadian company that appears to be very cheap. Historically, the company delivers free newspapers with ultra local content, relying on local advertisers to generate revenue. As you can imagine, this is a business in serious decline, and so the company has been left for dead by investors.

Friday, January 6, 2017

Karsan Value Funds: 2016 Q4 Results

Karsan Value Funds (KVF) is a value-oriented fund, as described here. Due to securities regulations, the fund is not open to the public at this time. Should that change in the future, there will be an announcement on this site.

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Superforecasting

Forecasts are everywhere. But surprisingly, few ask and receive the track record of the forecasters. As a result, we end up consuming a lot of bad forecasts, as we end up hearing from those who are better at entertaining than they are at forecasting. But there is a better way.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Off the RAIL

It feels like just yesterday that I was writing about the overly beaten down stock that is FreightCar America (RAIL)...because that's not far removed from the truth. Just last month, it traded at a massive discount to book value. But that discount is now almost completely erased.

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