Thursday, May 30, 2019

The Misbehavior of Markets

The Random Walk Theory of prices does a half-decent job describing the behaviour of markets in general. But if you want to get specific, it does have a couple of key problems. First, it assumes price changes are independent of each other, which statistical studies have shown to be false. And second, the number of events taking place in the tails is underestimated; the bell curve assumed is far too simplistic for modeling actual market returns.

Thursday, May 16, 2019


There are tons of books on human irrationality. I've reviewed many of them on this site! But NeuroLogic: The Brain's Hidden Rationale Behind Our Irrational Behavior is different. The focus is not so much on the irrational behaviour itself, but rather on what's going on inside the brain during this irrational behaviour.

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Beazer the Pleaser

Last year, shares of Beazer Homes fell big-time on the expectation that rising rates would kill consumer appetite for homes. So I bought some, as discussed here. Last week, I sold the shares following an appreciation in the stock of over 50%.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Convertible Debentures: Online Again!

In the past, I have found a few gems among the Canadian convertible debentures, including PineTree and Data Group. So it was more than a little annoying that the National Post stopped maintaining their online listings of these securities.