Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Super Crunchers: Conclusion

The following summary was written by Frank Voisin, who regularly writes for Frankly Speaking. Recently, Frank sold four restaurants and returned to school to complete a combined LLB/MBA.

In his final chapter, entitled The Future of Intuition (and Expertise), Ayres makes the case for why statistical thinking will not replace expertise and intuition. Rather, decision makers will toggle between statistics and intuition.

Intuition will guide the questions asked, statistics will answer the questions and test hypotheses derived from intuition. Statistics will complement intuition rather then act as a substitute.

Not only will experts be switching between intuition and statistics, but so will average folk. We’ll use statistics to quantify our intuitions, learning how to think more accurately than in the past. We’ll all be forced to become more critical thinkers just to keep up.

Some key terms to understand:

Conclusion: Statistical analysis is a valuable tool that we should all work harder to understand. In the future, those that understand statistical analysis and can use it to complement their own intuition, will have a greater chance of being successful. The future belongs to these people!

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