The following summary was written by Frank Voisin, who regularly writes for Frankly Speaking. Recently, Frank sold four restaurants and returned to school to complete a combined LLB/MBA.
In his final chapter, entitled The Future of Intuition (and Expertise), Ayres makes the case for why statistical thinking will not replace expertise and intuition. Rather, decision makers will toggle between statistics and intuition.
Intuition will guide the questions asked, statistics will answer the questions and test hypotheses derived from intuition. Statistics will complement intuition rather then act as a substitute.
Not only will experts be switching between intuition and statistics, but so will average folk. We’ll use statistics to quantify our intuitions, learning how to think more accurately than in the past. We’ll all be forced to become more critical thinkers just to keep up.
Some key terms to understand:
- Random Sample
- Standard Deviation
- Normal Distribution (And, perhaps more importantly, associated probabilities of data falling within standard deviation)
- Chebyshev’s Inequality (Like the probabilities for normal distributions, but apply to all data distributions)
- Bayes’ Theorem